History. No count shown: in none of the five past times did a president reach day 195 still in office with no name.
Hunch. On 9 November g1 reported that Lula left for his trip planning to choose his Supreme Court name and send it to the Senate this year.
The 31 December market resolves on official information from Brazil's Presidency at gov.br/planalto: YES if by 23:59 Brasília time on 31 December 2026 Lula or the Presidency names a person as his Supreme Court nominee, or a nomination message reaches the President of the Federal Senate, and NO if there is only a stated plan, a list of possible names or media reports. Folha de S.Paulo confirms it, O Globo, g1 and Estadão are the backups, and two of these reports decide if the official page cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a president's choice for the country's top court failed in the Senate after 1900, and a newly elected Senate was due to sit within about three months. We found five such times, four in the United States and one in Argentina. Brazil has none in this period: before Messias, its Senate last turned down a choice for the Supreme Court in 1894. (Federal Judicial Center; US National Archives; Casa Rosada; Folha de S.Paulo)