History. No count shown: in the past, the same person was named again only after a name fell without a vote. In the times we found, no president sent back a name the Senate had voted down.
Hunch. On 8 November O Globo reported that Davi Alcolumbre told allies that naming Jorge Messias again could cost him re-election as Senate president.
The Messias market resolves the same way on the same official page: YES only if by 23:59 Brasília time on 31 December 2026 Jorge Messias himself is announced as the nominee or his nomination message reaches the Senate president, and NO otherwise. Folha de S.Paulo confirms it, O Globo, g1 and Estadão are the backups.
We looked for cases where a president's choice for the country's top court failed in the Senate after 1900, and a newly elected Senate was due to sit within about three months. We found five such times, four in the United States and one in Argentina. Brazil has none in this period: before Messias, its Senate last turned down a choice for the Supreme Court in 1894. (Federal Judicial Center; US National Archives; Casa Rosada; Folha de S.Paulo)