History. No count shown: in none of the five past times did a president go this long without a name while still in office.
Hunch. On 9 November g1 reported that Lula plans to send his Supreme Court name to the Senate this year, weeks before the new Senate sits on 1 February.
The 1 February market resolves on the same official page with the same counting rule as the 31 December market: YES if by 23:59 Brasília time on 31 January 2027 any person is announced as the nominee or a nomination message reaches the Senate president, and NO otherwise. Folha de S.Paulo confirms it, O Globo, g1 and Estadão are the backups, and two of these reports decide if the official page cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a president's choice for the country's top court failed in the Senate after 1900, and a newly elected Senate was due to sit within about three months. We found five such times, four in the United States and one in Argentina. Brazil has none in this period: before Messias, its Senate last turned down a choice for the Supreme Court in 1894. (Federal Judicial Center; US National Archives; Casa Rosada; Folha de S.Paulo)