Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Do ministers announce new protest powers or a review by 11 Oct 2026?

BinaryResolves 11 Oct 2026
History67%
Hunch62%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Between 10 September and 11 October 2026 the Home Office announced no new protest powers and commissioned no new review: its gov.uk news list shows only the 15 September policing minister speech, which restated existing powers and referred to the Macdonald review from November 2025, and the Guardian on 28 September 2026 reported only the powers already in the Crime and Policing Act.

Resolved 11 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The powers market resolves on gov.uk, Hansard and legislation.gov.uk, checked on 11 October 2026. It resolves YES if ministers have announced new or extended police powers for protest or public order, or have commissioned an independent review or inspection of protest policing, on or before that date; restating powers already in force, or announcing money or an operational programme, resolves NO. If gov.uk has published nothing, BBC News and Guardian reports of the announcement settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of the six occasions since 2011 on which a home secretary publicly told forces to use the powers they already had were followed within 30 days by new or extended powers, or by a commissioned review: Mahmood in 2025 on the same day, Braverman in 2022 on the next, Patel in 2020 on day 13, May in 2011 on day four. The two that were not followed are the closest to today's case: Braverman in 2023, where the Met refused the ban she wanted and she was sacked five days later, and Cooper in 2024, whose review of the summer disorder was commissioned on day 36, six days outside the window.

Since 2011 we found six times a Home Secretary did this. Each one publicly stepped into a live wave of protests to tell police forces to use the powers they already had. We asked whether ministers announced new or wider police powers, or ordered a formal review of protest policing, within the next 30 days.