Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market10 Sep 2026

Is anyone charged over the Dover or Portsmouth protests by 9 Oct?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
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Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Del Somerville appeared in court on 12 September 2026 charged with violent disorder over the Portsmouth protest at Eastney of 6 September, and Hampshire Police later charged more men, as reported by The Guardian and BBC News; the police news page itself was blocked and could not be read.

Resolved 12 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The charges market resolves on statements from Kent Police, Hampshire and Isle of Wight Constabulary or the Crown Prosecution Service, checked on 9 October 2026. It resolves YES if at least one person has been charged with an offence arising from the Dover protest of 5 September or the Portsmouth protest of 6 September; arrests or interviews without a charge resolve NO. If no force or CPS statement is published, BBC News and Guardian reports settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of the six occasions since 2011 on which a home secretary publicly told forces to use the powers they already had were followed within 30 days by new or extended powers, or by a commissioned review: Mahmood in 2025 on the same day, Braverman in 2022 on the next, Patel in 2020 on day 13, May in 2011 on day four. The two that were not followed are the closest to today's case: Braverman in 2023, where the Met refused the ban she wanted and she was sacked five days later, and Cooper in 2024, whose review of the summer disorder was commissioned on day 36, six days outside the window.

Since 2011 we found six times a Home Secretary did this. Each one publicly stepped into a live wave of protests to tell police forces to use the powers they already had. We asked whether ministers announced new or wider police powers, or ordered a formal review of protest policing, within the next 30 days.