The Associated Press called the Maine Senate race of 3 November 2026 for Democrat Troy Jackson, who led Susan Collins 53.9% to 46.0% with about 84% counted, and Collins conceded; BBC News reports Jackson's win.
Hunch. Polls in September showed a tie or Collins 3 points ahead, and in 2020 she won by about 8.6 points when polls had her losing. Editorial scoring note: Score the final election result, including a runoff, rather than a fixed 28-day window. Louisiana 2014 therefore counts as a loss despite its 32-day runoff. This gives four losses in five elections and two losses by more than eight points. The existing market resolution rules are unchanged.
The winner market resolves on the Associated Press result and the official Maine Secretary of State result, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Troy Jackson wins, NO if Susan Collins or another candidate wins. If counting goes on it waits for the official result, with Reuters and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a senator from the president's party ran again in a midterm in a state that had voted for the other party for president, while chairing a Senate committee and facing a governor from the other party. We found five since 1918, all with the president under 50% approval or not yet measured. Only one kept the seat.