Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Democrats lose the Maine governor race on 3 November?

BinaryResolves 4 Nov 2026
History5 of 5
Hunch44%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Democrat Hannah Pingree won the Maine governor race of 3 November 2026, 55.3% to Robert Charles's 36.7% and Rick Bennett's 8.0% with 85% counted, called by the Associated Press (AP data shown by The Guardian), and WGME (off-list) reports Charles and Bennett conceded; the Maine Secretary of State site returns 403 and The New York Times is closed to us.

Resolved 4 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. A Marist poll taken from 22 to 25 October has Hannah Pingree and Bobby Charles level at 44% each, so the long run of the outgoing governor's party losing open races may not hold this time.

How this resolves

The governor market resolves on the Maine Secretary of State election results: YES if anyone other than Hannah Pingree, that is Bobby Charles or Rick Bennett, wins the vote for governor on 3 November 2026, and NO if Pingree wins. The result is read on 4 November and confirmed by The Guardian or The New York Times; if no winner is named by the end of that day, the official count from the Secretary of State settles it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 5
In all five Maine elections since 1974 where the governor could not run again after two terms in a row, the governor's party lost the job: three times to the other main party, twice to an independent.

We looked for cases where a Maine governor could not run again after two four-year terms in a row, and the governor’s party had its own candidate in the general election. We found five such elections, from 1974 to 2018, in the list of Maine governors kept by the state law library. Each time, someone from another party or no party took over.