The congress.gov member record for Mitch McConnell, updated on 1 November 2026, still lists him as a current senator from Kentucky with no end to his term, and no resignation was reported by 23:59 ET on 2 November; senate.gov blocked access.
Hunch. McConnell came back to the Senate on 14 September and voted, and he has rejected calls to resign before January (The Guardian, 15 Sep 2026).
The resignation market resolves on the Senate's list of senators (senate.gov) and statements from McConnell's office on 3 November 2026: YES if by 23:59 ET on 2 November he has announced a resignation that takes effect on or before 3 November, or has already left the seat by resigning. A plan to leave in January resolves NO, and if the seat falls vacant for any other reason the market is cancelled. BBC News and Reuters reports settle it if the official pages are unclear.
We looked for cases where a member of the US Congress, or of another parliament with a fixed term, had already said their term would be the last, then fell ill in public in a way that kept them from the work, with no rule that could force them out. We found seven since 2001, all in the US Congress: four senators and three members of the House.