Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will LaMonica McIver ask for a rehearing by 9 October?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
History3 of 3
Hunch80%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

LaMonica McIver's House press release of 9 October 2026 says she filed a petition asking the full Third Circuit to rehear her case en banc; the petition itself is published with it.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 3: McDade 1994, Jefferson 2008 and Menendez 2016, the only times the court papers show whether the member asked for a rehearing. The three 1980 members are outside this count because their papers do not show this step.

Hunch. McIver's lawyers can skip this step and go straight to the Supreme Court, and she plans to take October off after the birth of her baby.

How this resolves

The rehearing market resolves on reports in The Guardian and Al Jazeera and on Third Circuit court orders: YES if by the end of 9 October 2026, New York time, McIver asks the three judges or the full appeals court to hear her appeal again. NO if she files no such request by then, including if she goes straight to the Supreme Court, wins more time or lets the case go to trial.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five times the member asked a higher court before any trial, and once two members went to trial. All three times the court papers show the next step, from 1994 on, it was a request for a rehearing.

We looked for cases where a member of the US Congress lost an appeal to drop criminal charges on the grounds that the constitution protects lawmakers' work, while running for re-election. We found six members in five court rulings since 1980. John Murphy and Frank Thompson lost in the same ruling.