Where does the AfD stand against CDU/CSU in the last INSA poll by 2 Aug?
Multiple choiceResolves 3 Aug 2026
Hunch
AfD leads by 3+ points41%
AfD leads by under 333%
Tied or CDU/CSU ahead26%
Your forecast
AfD leads by 3+ points
AfD leads by under 3
Tied or CDU/CSU ahead
Resolved
Resolved: AfD leads by 3+ points
The last INSA poll published by 2 August (fieldwork 27-31 July) put the AfD on 28% against 21% for CDU/CSU, a seven-point lead, per Wahlrecht.de.
Resolved 3 Aug 2026
How this resolves
The polling market resolves on the last INSA national poll (Sonntagsfrage) published by 2 August 2026, as recorded by Wahlrecht.de; the AfD figure is compared to the combined CDU/CSU figure.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
3 of 4 major announced reform packages since 2003 were substantially enacted. The base rate favours passage — but the failed case is the most recent one, and it failed for the same reason this coalition nearly deadlocked: partners who agree on headlines and disagree on laws.
We looked for the big reform packages that German federal governments announced since 2003, and checked whether they became law. We found four. Three did, in 2003, 2007 and 2025. The one that failed is the most recent: Olaf Scholz's 49 measures of 2024, most of which never became law after his coalition collapsed that November.
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