By 31 October 2026 eSafety had announced no penalty under the under-16 ban: on 20 October the minister only said a Federal Court case was being prepared and nothing was filed, and Al Jazeera and BBC News report no penalty; the eSafety site could not be opened from here.
The market resolves on the eSafety Commissioner's own enforcement announcements (esafety.gov.au), published as they are made. It resolves YES if eSafety announces an infringement notice, civil penalty proceedings or an agreed penalty against any platform for a breach of the under-16 rules by 23:59 AEDT on 31 October 2026. A warning, a formal notice to give information, or a doubling of maximum fines does not count. If that source has not published in time, Al Jazeera and BBC News settle it.
Australia's social media ban for under-16s began in December 2025. The ban covers the same platforms and carries fines, so it is the closest real test of rules like these. We looked at the five official milestones of the ban so far. Only one of them reported the ban doing what it was meant to do.