Does the federal court in Oakland approve Meta's settlement with the states by 20 November 2026?
BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
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Yes
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Resolves 20 Nov 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the docket of the United States District Court for the Northern District of California. It resolves YES if the court enters an order granting preliminary or final approval of the states' settlement with Meta by 23:59 ET on 20 November 2026. An indication from the bench that the judge is inclined to approve does not count. If that source has not published in time, reporting by at least two of Reuters, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
The pattern behind it
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One of the last five official milestones in Australia's under-16 ban reported the restriction achieving its aim: January's count of 4.7 million accounts closed. The other four were the legislation passing in November 2024, the ban taking effect in December 2025, the maximum penalty doubling in June 2026 because children were bypassing the checks, and the regulator's August study finding more than eight in ten young teens and preteens still using the platforms through VPNs, fake age checks and unlisted apps. Meta's settlement borrows the same instruments, age assurance and account rules, and adds a daily time limit the Australian regime does not have. The full record is the same five milestones, November 2024 to August 2026.
Australia's social media ban for under-16s began in December 2025. The ban covers the same platforms and carries fines, so it is the closest real test of rules like these. We looked at the five official milestones of the ban so far. Only one of them reported the ban doing what it was meant to do.
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