Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Does a national security bill or order reach Parliament by 12 Oct?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
History62%
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Between 11 September and 12 October 2026 no national security bill had a first reading on bills.parliament.uk and legislation.gov.uk lists no proscription, name-change or designation order made; in her 12 October statement the Home Secretary called the National Security Bill still upcoming.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The bill-or-order market resolves on the Parliament bills record at bills.parliament.uk and the made-orders list at legislation.gov.uk. It resolves YES if a national security bill has a first reading, or a proscription, name-change or designation order is made, between 11 September and 12 October 2026; a commencement regulation on its own resolves NO. If those pages have not updated, Hansard and the BBC settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
Five of the eight MI5 chief interventions since 2017 drew a national security bill first reading or an order under the Terrorism Act within 30 days: 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2025. The exceptions are 2017, 2022 and 2024.

We looked at every public speech or statement by the head of MI5 published on the MI5 website since 2017, eight in all. For each one we checked the next 30 days. Was a national security bill put before Parliament for the first time, or did the government make an order that bans, renames or names a group? The newest come first.