Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Is a group designated under the State Threats Act by 12 Oct 2026?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
Hunch28%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No new group was designated under the State Threats Act by 12 October 2026: the only designation regulations on legislation.gov.uk, made on 16 July 2026, cover the IRGC, the IMCR and the GRU Volunteer Corps, and the Home Secretary's 12 October statement names no new designation.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The designation market resolves on the gov.uk list of organisations designated under the National Security (State Threats) Act 2026 and on legislation.gov.uk. It resolves YES if a group not designated on 11 September 2026 is designated on or before 12 October. If neither page has updated, Hansard and the Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
Five of the eight MI5 chief interventions since 2017 drew a national security bill first reading or an order under the Terrorism Act within 30 days: 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2025. The exceptions are 2017, 2022 and 2024.

We looked at every public speech or statement by the head of MI5 published on the MI5 website since 2017, eight in all. For each one we checked the next 30 days. Was a national security bill put before Parliament for the first time, or did the government make an order that bans, renames or names a group? The newest come first.