Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Jun 2026

Will Michael cross $1bn worldwide by 7 Aug 2026?

BinaryResolves 7 Aug 2026
History2 of 5
Hunch84%
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Resolved
Resolved: YES

Michael crossed $1bn worldwide on 12 July 2026, the first biographical film to do so; Box Office Mojo's running total reached $1.02bn.

Resolved 12 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The $1bn market resolves on Box Office Mojo / Comscore cumulative worldwide gross for Michael as of 23:59 ET on 7 Aug 2026; studio-reported figures confirmed by Comscore count, and if reporting services disagree, Box Office Mojo is the source of truth.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
Of five recent films that ground toward $1bn on legs rather than openings, two crossed and three stalled within $90m of the line. The pattern is genuinely split — but no stall-out was ever this close: Michael needs $23m with weeks of international play still booked.

Of five recent films that crept towards $1bn, two passed it. We looked at films that got near $1bn mostly through long runs in cinemas. Some kept going because people told friends to see them. Others lost their screens just short of the line.