History. 3 of 7: three times since 1984 the EU finished entry talks by the date it had named, and four times it ran late, by two weeks to 18 months.
Hunch. Croatia ties its demands to chapters 23 and 31, and on 3 November its prime minister said two of the six still open touch the courts or records of missing people.
The all-chapters market resolves on the European Commission news pages for each EU and Montenegro intergovernmental conference: YES if all 33 chapters are provisionally closed by 31 December 2026, Brussels time, as stated by the Commission or the Council of the EU, and a formal end of talks or a signed treaty is not needed. NO if any chapter is still open then, with ANSA, Balkan Insight and RFE/RL as backups, two of which decide if the Commission pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the EU, or the European Economic Community before it, named a date in an official text by which entry talks with a country should or could end. We found seven such times since 1984, and talks ended on time in three. The four late ones ran over by two weeks, six months, six months and 18 months. (UK Parliament; European Parliament; European Parliament; European Parliament; EUR-Lex; UK Parliament)