Does a Mercedes driver win at Monza on 6 September?
BinaryResolves 6 Sep 2026
Hunch38%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Mercedes finished one-two, Antonelli ahead of Russell, with Verstappen third, per BBC Sport and the Guardian on 6 September.
Resolved 6 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the official classification on formula1.com and fia.com, same timing. It resolves YES if Antonelli or Russell is classified the winner. If that source has not published in time, BBC Sport and Sky Sports settle it.
The pattern behind it
5 of 7
Five of the last seven championship leaders who started with a grid penalty for engine or gearbox parts finished on the podium: Hamilton from 21st at Spa in 2016, Verstappen from the back row in Russia in 2021, and Verstappen's three wins from 14th, seventh and sixth in 2022 and 2023. The two misses were Hamilton's fifth from 11th in Turkey in 2021 and Verstappen's fourth from 11th at Spa in 2024. That is the full record since 2016.
We looked at every race since 2016 where the championship leader started with a grid penalty for new engine or gearbox parts, and at where he finished. There were seven, and in five of them the leader fought back into the top three. Results come from BBC Sport's race reports.
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