Antonelli won the race from 19th on the grid, passing Russell with three laps to go, per BBC Sport and the Guardian on 6 September.
The market resolves on the official race classification on formula1.com and fia.com, published on the evening of 6 September after scrutineering. It resolves YES if Antonelli is classified first, second or third after any penalties applied that day. If that source has not published in time, BBC Sport and Sky Sports race reports settle it.
We looked at every race since 2016 where the championship leader started with a grid penalty for new engine or gearbox parts, and at where he finished. There were seven, and in five of them the leader fought back into the top three. Results come from BBC Sport's race reports.