July 2026 approvals printed at 56,100 (Bank of England, 1 Sep 2026).
Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same first-published July 2026 figure placed in one of the three bands. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters settle it.
The pattern behind it
5 of 6
Five of the six rebounds since 1993 carried: March 1997, February 2000, December 2008, February 2010 and June 2020 were each followed by a higher month. The one that did not was December 2004, when the series fell back in January 2005. The window and the full record are the same six cases, because a fall of 10 per cent in a single month is rare outside a crisis; three of the six sit in 2008, 2010 and 2020, and the size of the bounce in those years was larger than June 2026's 3.2 per cent.
We found six sharp falls followed by a rise since 1993. We looked at the Bank of England's monthly approvals figures since April 1993 for every month when approvals fell by 10 per cent or more and then rose the next month, as in May and June 2026. Then we checked whether the month after the rise was higher again. May and June 2026 are the case we are testing, so they are not counted.
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