The FCA confirmed the scheme at £7.5bn in redress — £9.1bn including costs — below the double-digit figures some analysts had modelled.
Hunch. Editorial scoring note: The current programme is not completed history. Two of three completed programmes exceeded their initial estimates. That overshoot analogue does not directly estimate the chance of crossing the present market's absolute 10bn threshold.
The redress-total market resolves on the figure confirmed in the FCA's policy statement, checked against the FCA's statements page at fca.org.uk and Upper Tribunal orders.
Britain has paid for mis-selling scandals before. In each, banks or firms had sold financial products unfairly, a regulator designed a compensation scheme and the industry gave a first estimate of the cost. We looked at the three large schemes that have finished and compared the final bill with that first estimate. The car finance scheme is shown for context and is not counted.