The committee voted 6–3 to hold at 3.75%, with the minority preferring an immediate rise to 4% (Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, 30 July 2026).
The market resolves on the Monetary Policy Summary published by the Bank of England at 12:00 on 30 July 2026, on bankofengland.co.uk; the level of Bank Rate stated there resolves the option. Any outcome other than the three listed levels voids the market. By 23:59 BST on 30 July 2026. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters settle it.
Since 2011 we found four times when a minority pushed for a rise. In each, two or more committee members voted to raise the rate while most kept it the same. We checked whether the committee raised the rate within its next two meetings, which is what the first market asks about 30 July. The current vote is the case we are testing and is not counted. Sometimes the minority was early, and the committee followed. Sometimes it never won, and the next move was a cut.