Three members — Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill — voted to raise Bank Rate to 4.00%, clearing the two-vote threshold (Bank of England, MPC minutes, 30 July 2026).
The market resolves on the vote split recorded in the official MPC minutes for the meeting ending 29 July 2026, published alongside the Monetary Policy Summary on 30 July 2026; YES if two or more members voted for any increase in Bank Rate. Preferences expressed in speeches or interviews do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters settle it.
Since 2011 we found four times when a minority pushed for a rise. In each, two or more committee members voted to raise the rate while most kept it the same. We checked whether the committee raised the rate within its next two meetings, which is what the first market asks about 30 July. The current vote is the case we are testing and is not counted. Sometimes the minority was early, and the committee followed. Sometimes it never won, and the next move was a cut.