The FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 per cent (federalreserve.gov).
(adjacent). The market resolves on the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov at 14:00 ET on 16 September 2026 and resolves YES only if the target range is kept at 3.50 to 3.75%; a move in either direction, or no statement that day, resolves NO. Reuters and BBC News reports of the decision settle it if the Fed's page is unavailable.
We found eight rate decisions made just after oil jumped. They come from the six oil price spikes named in the Bank of England's own minutes since 2008: the run towards $147 in 2008, Libya in 2011, the attack on Abqaiq in 2019, Ukraine in 2022, the Israel–Iran war in 2025 and the Iran war in 2026. In each decision the minutes show Brent up 10 per cent or more since the meeting before. We checked whether the Bank left its rate unchanged, which is what the first market asks about 17 September. Newest first.