History. In all six US Senate races since 1990 where an independent faced a sitting senator and no Democrat ran, the senator won (Virginia 1990 and 2002, Arizona 2000, Kansas 2014, Utah 2022, Nebraska 2024).
Hunch. Osborn came within 6.7 points in 2024 and runs again with the Democrats' backing and no Democrat on the ballot.
The winner market resolves on the official results of the Nebraska Secretary of State on 4 November 2026: YES if Pete Ricketts has more votes than Dan Osborn, NO if Osborn has more, and void if they are equal. If the count is not final that day it waits for the state certification on 30 November, with The Guardian and BBC News as backups.
We looked for cases where a sitting US senator faced a candidate with no party, and the other big party had no candidate on the ballot. We found six such races from 1990 to 2024 in the official results. The senator was a Republican each time, and John Warner of Virginia won two of them. The 2024 race was Osborn’s first try.