History. In all six such races since 1990 the senator won more than half of all votes cast; the lowest was 53.1% (Pat Roberts, Kansas, 2014).
Hunch. Three small-party candidates are on the ballot this year, while in 2024 Deb Fischer won 53.2% with none.
The more-than-half market resolves on the same official results: YES if Ricketts wins more than 50.0% of all votes cast in the Senate race, NO if he wins 50.0% or less. If the count is not final on 4 November it waits for the certification on 30 November, with The Guardian and BBC News as backups.
We looked for cases where a sitting US senator faced a candidate with no party, and the other big party had no candidate on the ballot. We found six such races from 1990 to 2024 in the official results. The senator was a Republican each time, and John Warner of Virginia won two of them. The 2024 race was Osborn’s first try.