History. 2 of 6: of the six past deals still alive 38 days after the finding, the regulator banned two before the deadline in force without moving it again (Knauf 2004, Sabre 2020); it banned BOC 2008 and AkzoNobel 2012 only after more time, and Experian 2018 and Illumina 2019 gave up after more time. Raw figure on all ten, 2 of 10, not shown.
Hunch. The CMA plans its final report for early December, but none of the six full merger reviews it has closed since May 2025 ended in a ban.
The ban market resolves YES if by 23:59 London time on 15 December 2026 the CMA announces on its case page a final decision to block the whole deal, while a later decision, clearance with or without conditions, a partial block or the firms giving up first resolve NO. The Guardian or The Independent confirm it, and decide together if the page does not open.
We looked for cases where the UK competition regulator, in a full review of a merger not yet completed, found harm to competition, rejected the firms' claimed benefits and named only a ban as a working fix. We found ten such deals from 2004 to 2021. Until 2014 the regulator was the Competition Commission, after that the CMA. (CMA; CMA; GOV.UK)