History. 2 of 6: of the six past deals still alive 38 days after the finding, the firms gave up before a ruling at Illumina 2019 (day 71) and Experian 2018 (day 91), both after the deadline was moved; the other four were banned. Raw figure on all ten, 6 of 10, not shown: four walk-aways came by day 25.
Hunch. On 20 October the buyer's owners said they are ready to work with the CMA once it changes its view of the market.
The walk-away market resolves YES if by 23:59 London time on 2 March 2027, and before any CMA final report, the firms give the deal up, shown by the CMA closing the review after written word that the deal is abandoned or by the firms ending the sale contract; a final report first, with any outcome, or a live deal on 2 March resolves NO. It resolves on the CMA case page, confirmed by The Guardian or The Independent, which decide together if the page does not open.
We looked for cases where the UK competition regulator, in a full review of a merger not yet completed, found harm to competition, rejected the firms' claimed benefits and named only a ban as a working fix. We found ten such deals from 2004 to 2021. Until 2014 the regulator was the Competition Commission, after that the CMA. (CMA; CMA; GOV.UK)