Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Aug 2026

Does the regulator's interim report find the nexfibre merger harms competition by 31 Oct?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 2 October 2026 the CMA published its interim report on nexfibre / Substantial, provisionally finding that the merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition in the wholesale supply of fixed broadband services, as its case page and report summary show.

Resolved 2 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the nexfibre / Substantial case page at gov.uk/cma-cases, which the CMA updates on the day it publishes an interim report (provisional findings) and its summary. YES if a document published on or before 31 October 2026 records that the group has provisionally found that the merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition in any market; a provisional clearance, or no interim report by the date, resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News reports of the interim report settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Two of the five UK telecoms inquiries that reached Phase 2 provisional findings identified a competition problem: Cellnex / CK Hutchison (December 2021) and Vodafone / Three (2024). BT / EE (2015), Virgin Media / O2 (2021) and Ericsson / Creative (2014) were provisionally cleared. Five cases is the full record on the CMA case page and below the six Hunch requires to show History, so the count is given as context, not as a chart. None of the five was prohibited.

Five telecoms mergers reached this stage with findings on record. We set the rule before counting: every telecoms merger the CMA sent to a Phase 2 review whose first findings, now called an interim report, are published on its case page. We asked one thing: did those findings say the deal would substantially reduce competition? Three older cases have only final results on record, so they are left out.