Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Aug 2026

Does the CMA publish its interim report on the nexfibre / Substantial inquiry on or before 16 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 16 Oct 2026
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The CMA case page shows the interim report notice and summary published on 2 October 2026 and the full interim report on 5 October, which the Press Association also reported on 2 October.

Resolved 2 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the same case page. YES if an interim report or notice of provisional findings is dated on or before 16 October 2026; a revised timetable that moves publication later resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Two of the five UK telecoms inquiries that reached Phase 2 provisional findings identified a competition problem: Cellnex / CK Hutchison (December 2021) and Vodafone / Three (2024). BT / EE (2015), Virgin Media / O2 (2021) and Ericsson / Creative (2014) were provisionally cleared. Five cases is the full record on the CMA case page and below the six Hunch requires to show History, so the count is given as context, not as a chart. None of the five was prohibited.

Five telecoms mergers reached this stage with findings on record. We set the rule before counting: every telecoms merger the CMA sent to a Phase 2 review whose first findings, now called an interim report, are published on its case page. We asked one thing: did those findings say the deal would substantially reduce competition? Three older cases have only final results on record, so they are left out.