The Associated Press called the New Hampshire Senate race of 3 November 2026 for Democrat Chris Pappas, who led John E. Sununu 56.2% to 42.0% with about 89% counted; The Guardian and BBC News report his win.
Hunch. A New York Times poll at the end of September put Pappas 5 points ahead, and 60% of New Hampshire voters disapprove of Donald Trump.
The winner market resolves on the Associated Press result and the official New Hampshire count, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Chris Pappas wins, NO if any other candidate wins. If there is no result by then it waits for the state's official result, with Reuters and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a midterm Senate seat came open on the side of the party opposite the president, and the president's party ran someone who had already won a statewide post. In each, the governor came from the other party to the senator leaving. We found ten since 1918, all in years when the president's approval was under 50% or not yet measured.