In the 3 November 2026 Senate election Chris Pappas led John Sununu 56.2% to 41.9% in the AP count with 90% of expected votes in, a margin of about 14 points with about 65,000 votes left, per NBC News and CBS News.
History. 5 of 10: the party opposite the president won by 10 points or more in Wyoming 1994, Maryland 2006 and three races in 2010. The 1918 margin is not verified and counts as no.
Hunch. The latest New York Times poll has Pappas only 5 points ahead, and Sununu leads among voters outside both parties on character.
The margin market resolves on the official New Hampshire result and the Associated Press count: YES if Pappas's share minus Sununu's share of all votes cast for candidates is 10.0 points or more, NO if it is less or Sununu wins. Reuters and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a midterm Senate seat came open on the side of the party opposite the president, and the president's party ran someone who had already won a statewide post. In each, the governor came from the other party to the senator leaving. We found ten since 1918, all in years when the president's approval was under 50% or not yet measured.