NISRA's Labour Market Report headline table 1a of 15 September 2026 put the seasonally adjusted 16 and over unemployment rate for May to July 2026 at 2.35 per cent, published as 2.4 per cent, up 0.6 points on the quarter (nisra.gov.uk). BBC News NI reported the 2.4 per cent rate the same morning (bbc.co.uk).
Resolves on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over in the NISRA Labour Market Report headline tables published on 15 September 2026. YES if that figure is below 2.0 per cent. A figure of exactly 2.0 per cent resolves NO. The 16 to 64 table is not used. If the release is delayed, the market resolves on the same table when published, up to 30 September, and voids after that. If that source has not published in time, BBC News NI and the Belfast Telegraph reporting the figure settle it.
We looked at NISRA's whole unemployment series, from early 1995 to June 2026: 376 readings in all. Only 17 are below 2 per cent, all of them since 2023, and 16 of those have a reading after them. For each we asked whether the next reading was also below 2 per cent. Seven of the last eight were followed by another below 2 per cent. The last eight are shown.