Is Northern Ireland's unemployment rate below 2.0% in the Labour Market Report published 17 Nov 2026?
BinaryResolves 17 Nov 2026
Hunch82%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 17 Nov 2026
How this resolves
Resolves on the same table in the Labour Market Report published on 17 November 2026. YES if the 16 and over seasonally adjusted rate is below 2.0 per cent; exactly 2.0 resolves NO. Delay handling and fallbacks as above.
The pattern behind it
7 of 8
Seven of the last eight sub-2 per cent readings were followed by another below the line; the full record is 14 of 16. The limitation is severe and has to be stated: rolling quarters overlap by two months, so consecutive observations share two thirds of their sample and are not independent trials. The number describes persistence in a smoothed series, which is real information, but it is not sixteen separate coin flips and should not be read as one.
We looked at NISRA's whole unemployment series, from early 1995 to June 2026: 376 readings in all. Only 17 are below 2 per cent, all of them since 2023, and 16 of those have a reading after them. For each we asked whether the next reading was also below 2 per cent. Seven of the last eight were followed by another below 2 per cent. The last eight are shown.
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