The same NISRA headline table 1a put the seasonally adjusted 16 and over economic inactivity rate for May to July 2026 at 40.3 per cent, down 0.4 points on the quarter and below the 41.0 per cent line (nisra.gov.uk). The Department for the Economy's release of the same statistics on 15 September 2026 confirmed the fall in inactivity over the quarter (economy-ni.gov.uk).
Resolves on the seasonally adjusted inactivity rate for those aged 16 and over in the same headline tables published on 15 September 2026. YES if that figure is above 41.0 per cent. Exactly 41.0 per cent resolves NO. The figure for April to June 2026 in the release of 18 August 2026 was 40.67 per cent. If that source has not published in time, BBC News NI and the Belfast Telegraph settle it.
We looked at NISRA's whole unemployment series, from early 1995 to June 2026: 376 readings in all. Only 17 are below 2 per cent, all of them since 2023, and 16 of those have a reading after them. For each we asked whether the next reading was also below 2 per cent. Seven of the last eight were followed by another below 2 per cent. The last eight are shown.