The action short of a strike that the Northern Ireland Teachers' Council began on 28 September 2026 was still in place on 23 October 2026: the Department of Education news page and INTO's page carry no suspension or end, the last word being the minister's 21 September statement, which BBC News NI also reported.
Hunch. The employer side says eight of 11 issues are agreed in principle and asked for four more weeks, which would end on 19 October, so a quick deal is more likely here than anywhere in the record.
The October market resolves YES if on 23 October 2026 the action short of a strike that the Northern Ireland Teachers' Council called for 28 September is still in place, and NO if the Council, or all five unions, has announced by then that it is suspended or ended. An agreement in principle that leaves the action running until members vote counts as still in place, and a suspension before 28 September resolves NO. The Department of Education and the unions' own statements settle it, with BBC News NI and the Belfast Telegraph as backup.
We looked for times since 2012 when teachers' or head teachers' unions across a whole UK nation started action short of a strike, such as a work-to-rule. For each we asked whether the action was still in place 31 days after it began. We found ten and use nine, because one has no known end date. The closest are shown first. All nine were still in place a month after they began. Four are in Northern Ireland with the same employer side, so they are not fully separate, and two of those, both in 2022, ended with one deal. The 2017 and 2022 Northern Ireland disputes ran mostly while Stormont had no working Executive. The 2025 case and this one have a minister in post.