Hunch. The closest case, the same five unions and the same minister in 2025, ended on day 53 with a deal, but this time the unions want a funded plan and Stormont has no agreed budget to pay for it.
The November market resolves on the same test with the date moved to 30 November 2026. The Department of Education and the unions' own statements are the primary sources, and BBC News NI and the Irish News settle it if they say nothing.
We looked for times since 2012 when teachers' or head teachers' unions across a whole UK nation started action short of a strike, such as a work-to-rule. For each we asked whether the action was still in place 31 days after it began. We found ten and use nine, because one has no known end date. The closest are shown first. All nine were still in place a month after they began. Four are in Northern Ireland with the same employer side, so they are not fully separate, and two of those, both in 2022, ended with one deal. The 2017 and 2022 Northern Ireland disputes ran mostly while Stormont had no working Executive. The 2025 case and this one have a minister in post.