Will Norway beat England to reach a first World Cup semi-final?
BinaryResolves 11 Jul 2026
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Hunch38%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: NO
England beat Norway 2-1 after extra time in Miami on 11 Jul; Bellingham scored twice (ESPN, 11 Jul 2026).
Resolved 11 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the official FIFA match record for the 11 July quarter-final in Miami. It resolves YES if Norway are declared the winners, including after extra time or penalties. If that source has not published in time, ESPN and Sky Sports match reports settle it.
The pattern behind it
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One of the last five nations to reach a maiden World Cup quarter-final went on to the semi-finals: Morocco in 2022. Costa Rica in 2014 and Ghana in 2010 lost shootouts, Senegal in 2002 fell to a golden goal, and Ukraine in 2006 were beaten by the eventual champions. That is the full record of first-time quarter-finalists this century — the ceiling is real, but Morocco showed it can be broken.
Norway are the sixth country this century to reach their first World Cup quarter-final. We looked at whether the five before them won that game and reached the semi-finals. Four went out in the quarter-final, and only Morocco, in 2022, went further.
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