Mbappé took the Golden Boot with ten goals ahead of Messi on eight and Haaland on seven, the first player to win it at two World Cups.
Resolved 19 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on FIFA's official Golden Boot award at the end of the tournament on 19 July, applying FIFA's tiebreakers of assists and then minutes played. If that source has not published in time, Sky Sports' Golden Boot tracker and ESPN settle it.
The pattern behind it
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One of the last five nations to reach a maiden World Cup quarter-final went on to the semi-finals: Morocco in 2022. Costa Rica in 2014 and Ghana in 2010 lost shootouts, Senegal in 2002 fell to a golden goal, and Ukraine in 2006 were beaten by the eventual champions. That is the full record of first-time quarter-finalists this century — the ceiling is real, but Morocco showed it can be broken.
Norway are the sixth country this century to reach their first World Cup quarter-final. We looked at whether the five before them won that game and reached the semi-finals. Four went out in the quarter-final, and only Morocco, in 2022, went further.
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