Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Do Apple or Google announce a new UK under-18 nudity block by 9 Oct 2026?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Apple's 14 September 2026 update extended its global Communication Safety feature to gore and violent content; the nudity block already existed and no new UK under-18 block was announced. Google posted nothing on it by the deadline.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The device-block market resolves YES if Apple or Google publishes, on its own newsroom or product blog between 10 September and 9 October 2026, a new or expanded feature that blocks nude images on UK devices used by under-18s. A restatement of a feature already shipped does not count, and if neither company posts anything, BBC and Guardian reports of a launch settle it.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of the last eight duties a UK minister promised on technology companies without a Bill in hand reached a first reading inside three months: the intimate-image and deepfake offences of 7 January 2025, which the Crime and Policing Bill carried on 25 February, 49 days later. Four of the eight arrived inside a year, the other three being the pornography age-verification requirement of February 2016 at 140 days, the smart-device security law of April 2021 at 217 days and the telecoms security regime of January 2020 at 301 days. The remaining four are the digital markets regime at 879 days, the online harms duty of care at 1,074 days, and two promises that have produced no Bill at all: the July 2024 pledge on the most powerful AI models and the children's online safety powers promised in February 2026.

Of eight such promises since 2016, one got a bill within three months. We set the rule before counting. We looked at every time since 2016 that a UK minister publicly promised a law putting a new duty or offence on tech companies or online platforms, when no bill carrying it was before Parliament. Then we checked if a bill containing that duty had its first reading, its formal start in Parliament, within three calendar months. Changes to bills already in Parliament are left out.