Does a minister name the bill that will carry the duty by 30 Nov 2026?
BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
How this resolves
The named-vehicle market resolves YES if a minister identifies the specific Bill that will carry the duty, in a GOV.UK publication or on the record in Hansard, on or before 30 November 2026. A repeated commitment to legislate without naming a Bill resolves NO.
The pattern behind it
1 of 8
One of the last eight duties a UK minister promised on technology companies without a Bill in hand reached a first reading inside three months: the intimate-image and deepfake offences of 7 January 2025, which the Crime and Policing Bill carried on 25 February, 49 days later. Four of the eight arrived inside a year, the other three being the pornography age-verification requirement of February 2016 at 140 days, the smart-device security law of April 2021 at 217 days and the telecoms security regime of January 2020 at 301 days. The remaining four are the digital markets regime at 879 days, the online harms duty of care at 1,074 days, and two promises that have produced no Bill at all: the July 2024 pledge on the most powerful AI models and the children's online safety powers promised in February 2026.
Of eight such promises since 2016, one got a bill within three months. We set the rule before counting. We looked at every time since 2016 that a UK minister publicly promised a law putting a new duty or offence on tech companies or online platforms, when no bill carrying it was before Parliament. Then we checked if a bill containing that duty had its first reading, its formal start in Parliament, within three calendar months. Changes to bills already in Parliament are left out.
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