Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 May 2026

How many of ten cleared Chinese firms confirm H200 orders by 31 Jul 2026?

Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
None46%
1–3 firms32%
4–6 firms14%
7 or more8%
Your forecast
  • None
  • 1–3 firms
  • 4–6 firms
  • 7 or more
Resolved
Resolved: None

None of the ten cleared Chinese firms publicly confirmed an H200 order by 31 July; US officials described shipments as “very few” and “trivial” (CNBC, 14 Jul; SCMP, 15 Jul 2026).

Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves

Order counts resolve on named-company confirmations reported by at least two of Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC or the Financial Times.

The pattern behind it

1 of 3
Of three rounds of China-compliant Nvidia chips since 2022, only one (A800/H800) achieved sustained sales, and Washington killed it after a year. The pattern is split on who closes the window, US or China, but not on the outcome: 1 of 3 rounds lasted.

We looked at each round of US limits on Nvidia's chip sales to China since 2019. The same cycle kept coming back. Washington set limits, Nvidia made a chip that fit them or won a licence, and then one of the two governments shut the door. Of the three China versions since 2022, only one sold for about a year. What has changed is which government shuts the door.