The market resolves on the headline figure Ofgem publishes for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit for the cap period 1 January to 31 March 2027, on the press release and cap-level pages at ofgem.gov.uk, expected in the fourth week of November. YES if that figure is above £1,723; NO if £1,723 or below. If Ofgem has not published the January level by 23:59 GMT on 27 November 2026 the market is void. Supplier estimates, consultancy projections and prepayment or standard credit figures do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian reports of the announcement settle it.
We found seven October caps, from 2019 to 2025. For each one we looked at the next cap Ofgem set after it. Until 2021 the cap lasted six months, so the next one was April's. Since 2022 it changes every three months, so the next one is January's. We checked whether the next cap for a typical household paying by direct debit was higher than October's, using Ofgem's own figures and its comparable figures when it changed how it measures a typical home. Newest first.