Where does Ofgem set the January 2027 cap, announced by 27 Nov 2026?
Multiple choiceResolves 27 Nov 2026
Hunch
Below £1,65011%
£1,650 to £1,78044%
£1,780 to £1,90033%
Above £1,90012%
Your forecast
Below £1,650
£1,650 to £1,780
£1,780 to £1,900
Above £1,900
Resolves 27 Nov 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same Ofgem figure. Bands are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper. If Ofgem changes its typical-consumption methodology before publication, the figure Ofgem itself presents as the headline annual level applies. Void on the same terms as Market 1. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
The pattern behind it
6 of 7
Six of the seven caps announced after an October cap came in higher: into April 2021, April 2022, January 2023, January 2024, January 2025 and January 2026. The one fall was April 2020, down £17 on the October 2019 level. Seven cases is the full record, since Ofgem first set an October cap in 2019. The mechanism is seasonal: wholesale gas for the first quarter is bought into winter demand, and Ofgem's observation window for the January cap sits in the autumn.
We found seven October caps, from 2019 to 2025. For each one we looked at the next cap Ofgem set after it. Until 2021 the cap lasted six months, so the next one was April's. Since 2022 it changes every three months, so the next one is January's. We checked whether the next cap for a typical household paying by direct debit was higher than October's, using Ofgem's own figures and its comparable figures when it changed how it measures a typical home. Newest first.
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