The Associated Press called Ohio's special Senate election of 3 November 2026 for Democrat Sherrod Brown, who led Jon Husted 49.7% to 45.5% with about 97% counted; The Guardian and BBC News report Brown's win.
History. 9 of 10 after keeping the ten most recent of 26 equal races; the full list since 1914 gives 19 of 26, with all seven losses before 1946.
Hunch. Over the full list since 1914 appointed senators won 19 of 26 such races, and only 17% of Americans approve of how Donald Trump handles living costs.
The winner market resolves on the Associated Press result and the official Ohio Secretary of State result, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Jon Husted wins the special Senate election, NO if Sherrod Brown or another candidate wins. If there is no result by then it waits for the official result, with Reuters and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a senator appointed from the president's party ran in a special election for the rest of the term in a midterm year, with the president under 50% approval or not yet measured. We found 26 since 1914, all equal on what we could check, and kept the ten most recent, from 1934 to 2022. The appointed senator won 19 of the 26, and 9 of the 10.