Hunch. US oil closed at $109.72 on 23 October, just under the line, and this question counts even a one-minute touch of $110 in November.
The $110 market resolves YES if the front US oil (WTI) contract on ICE trades at $110 or higher in any one minute of the November 2026 trading sessions, ending 30 November at 11:59pm New York time, and NO otherwise. It settles on the Pyth one-minute price feed for that contract, with the ICE daily high as backup and Guardian or Al Jazeera reports to confirm.
We looked for cases where Brent oil closed at its highest price in at least three months, and news reports at the time linked the rise to a war or to a break in oil supply. Daily prices for Brent and US oil, for oil delivered now, come from the US Energy Information Administration and go back to 1987. We found six such times since 2002. For each one we looked at the price from one to five weeks after that first high day, about the same weeks that November covers now.