Hunch. On 30 October Brent for December reached $118, $2 below the line, and the January contract that settles this question trades lower.
The $120 market resolves YES if the official settlement price of the Brent January 2027 contract on ICE Futures Europe is $120.00 or higher on any trading day from 2 to 30 November 2026, and NO otherwise; a brief touch during the day does not count. Guardian or Al Jazeera market reports confirm it only if they name the January contract, and two such reports decide if the ICE page does not open.
We looked for cases where Brent oil closed at its highest price in at least three months, and news reports at the time linked the rise to a war or to a break in oil supply. Daily prices for Brent and US oil, for oil delivered now, come from the US Energy Information Administration and go back to 1987. We found six such times since 2002. For each one we looked at the price from one to five weeks after that first high day, about the same weeks that November covers now.