Brent front-month never settled below $70 in the window: the low was $71.57 on 1 July, and after the United States struck Iran on 8 July the price rallied through the month to end July near $90 (ICE Brent settlements; Al Jazeera, 8 Jul 2026).
Resolves YES if any ICE Brent front-month futures settlement between 7 and 31 July 2026 inclusive is below $70.00. Settlements are taken from ICE; if ICE is unavailable, the closing price reported by at least two of Reuters, the Financial Times and Bloomberg governs.
We looked at four big oil supply shocks since 1991. In each one the lost oil later started to come back. We asked how fast the price then fell back to where it was before the shock. The record is split. Twice the extra price caused by the crisis was gone within weeks. Twice it stayed for months or more, because the lost oil never fully came back.