Brent never settled below $72.50 between 7 July and 30 September 2026: it settled at $74.16 on 7 July and rose above $80 by mid-July, with EIA spot data never below $74.34 after 7 July.
Resolves YES if any ICE Brent front-month settlement between 7 July and 30 September 2026 inclusive is below $72.50, the settlement of 27 February 2026, the last before the 28 February strikes on Iran. Same fallback as above.
We looked at four big oil supply shocks since 1991. In each one the lost oil later started to come back. We asked how fast the price then fell back to where it was before the shock. The record is split. Twice the extra price caused by the crisis was gone within weeks. Twice it stayed for months or more, because the lost oil never fully came back.