Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Jun 2026

Who wins the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale?

Multiple choiceResolves 19 Jul 2026
Hunch
Scottie Scheffler21%
Rory McIlroy13%
Wyndham Clark8%
Another player58%
Your forecast
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Wyndham Clark
  • Another player
Resolved
Resolved: Another player

Ryan Fox won at ten under par with a weekend 62-68, a shot ahead of Cameron Young; Scheffler and McIlroy never led on Sunday.

Resolved 19 Jul 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington's 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.

How this resolves

The winner market resolves on the official final leaderboard published by the R&A at theopen.com after play concludes on 19 July 2026, and resolves 'Another player' for any champion other than the three named; a Monday playoff finish still resolves on the official R&A result.

The pattern behind it

0 of 16
No Open champion has retained the Claret Jug in the sixteen editions since Pádraig Harrington's 2008 defence at Birkdale. That is the honest weight against Scheffler the defender — even as Americans have won four of the last five Opens and Scheffler remains world number one. Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington's 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.

None of the sixteen Open editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding 2020, had a repeat winner. This is an edition-level record, not sixteen participating defending champions.