Will an English player finish in the top five at Royal Birkdale?
BinaryResolves 19 Jul 2026
Hunch27%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Tommy Fleetwood tied for fourth at Royal Birkdale after a final-round 68.
Resolved 19 Jul 2026
Why these numbers
Hunch. Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington's 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.
How this resolves
The top-five market resolves on the same official R&A final leaderboard and counts ties: an English player tied for fifth or better resolves YES, with nationality per the R&A player listing.
The pattern behind it
0 of 16
No Open champion has retained the Claret Jug in the sixteen editions since Pádraig Harrington's 2008 defence at Birkdale. That is the honest weight against Scheffler the defender — even as Americans have won four of the last five Opens and Scheffler remains world number one.
Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington's 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.
None of the sixteen Open editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding 2020, had a repeat winner. This is an edition-level record, not sixteen participating defending champions.
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